The EuroWhat? Podcast

We are a pair of Americans trying to make sense of the Eurovision Song Contest.

Eurovision 2018 Second Semi-Final Predictions

The second semi-final of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest takes place Thursday, May 10 in Lisbon, Portugal. Will we go 10-for-10 in our guesses for who will qualify? Or will there be just as many surprises as Tuesday's show?

After much number-crunching, YouTube watching, head scratching, dart throwing, and on-air disagreements, we have finally compiled our data and made our prediction for which ten acts we think will advance out of the second semi-final of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest.

The 10 acts that we think will advance, presented in alphabetical order, are:

  • Australia
  • Denmark
  • Hungary
  • Moldova
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Slovenia
  • Sweden
  • Ukraine

Let's talk about our confidence levels, shall we?

Australia, Norway, and Sweden landed in the top 10 across all metrics we use to compile our final prediction. We love them, the oddsmakers love them, and folks on YouTube love them. That's full consensus in our mind. Although Greece also shared that full consensus on Tuesday (oops), Norway and Sweden did go through a vetting process and Australia has been part of public performances through the international pre-parties.

Ukraine also seems like a safe bet, having ranked 11 in only one of our metrics and placing top 10 in the rest. Also, as the closer in the running order, there's a strong chance that positioning will offer a boost.

Everyone else is, well, a giant shrug emoji. There's a fair amount of uncertainty after Tuesday's semi-final with surprise qualifications from Albania, Ireland, and Lithuania. Perhaps Hungary's hard rock entry isn't a tough sell? Moldova's performance may be delightful, but maybe it's masking an otherwise average song? And maybe Russia's Gonna Russia and sneak into Saturday's final?((Russia is only 2 points from making our top 10.))

We'll find out the results at the end of the second semi-final, which takes place today at 21:00 CET / 3pm Eastern / 12pm Pacific, live from Lisbon, Portugal.